Understanding near-term vs. lifetime risk

At Catch, we talk a lot about understanding your personal cancer risk, but it’s important to put the idea of risk itself into better context. With any form of cancer, one needs to differentiate between lifetime risk and near-term risk. 

Lifetime risk means exactly that: it is the likelihood that, at some point in your life, you will develop a specific form (or any form) of cancer. It’s useful to think of lifetime risk as cumulative. We can use breast cancer as an example, as data on this most-common form of cancer is very robust. 

The average woman’s risk of developing breast cancer at some point in her life is 13%^[1]. This is what’s known as an absolute risk – it takes into account the known risk for smaller segments of time–such as each year of a woman’s life–and determines the overall risk that this implies over a larger scale–in this case the entirety of her life. 

The near-term risk of receiving a diagnosis is definitionally lower than the lifetime risk. At age 30, the average risk of developing breast cancer within the next 10 years is lower than 1%. At age 70, that 10-year risk jumps to around 4%. At no point, however, does the 10-year risk reach the 13% lifetime estimate. 

A 4% risk might still sound alarming, but even this requires further context. The decade between ages 70 and 80 is when one’s annual risk of a breast cancer diagnosis peaks… at around 0.48% annually. This percentage is still based on broad population data–an individual’s risk may be higher or lower dependent on their risk factors and protective factors–but most women can expect that, in any given year of life, they have a less than 0.5% chance of receiving a breast-cancer diagnosis. 

Prostate cancer–the most common cancer in men–follows a similar pattern. The lifetime risk for this cancer is around 12.8%. At age 30, a man’s 10-year risk is functionally 0%, but at age 70, that 10-year risk jumps to approximately 6%. In any given year, however, the risk never rises above 0.73%.^[2] 

Behind the scenes at Catch, we’re taking 1-year, 10-year, and lifetime risk into account when tailoring your personal Action Plan and Screening Protocol. When caught at the localized stage, breast cancer has a 5-year survival rate of 99%. For localized prostate cancer, this rate is 100%. For individuals at average risk, annual screening in the form of mammograms or prostate exams is extremely likely to catch these common cancers at an early stage. Despite the fact that both breast and prostate cancer have a high lifetime risk relative to other cancers, screening more frequently is unlikely to change one’s treatment plan or prognosis, and might cause significant anxiety, as well as a potentially high financial burden. 

For other cancers, however, or for individuals with significant additional risk factors, we may recommend more active screening. Cancers of the lip and tongue are relatively rare, and most people may not receive active screening recommendations for these (beyond regular physicals and dental visits). For snuff and chewing tobacco users, however, the risk increases significantly, which may lead us to recommend screening more frequently, and in a more targeted way, starting at a younger age. Across all the cancers we model, we use your personal risk to create a screening plan that balances the importance of catching cancer early with your current individualized risk, AKA your near-term risk.

Cancer is a scary word, especially if the only statistic you’re hearing about is lifetime risk. Your personal risk, however, will not only shift over time, it is something you can shift with the help of your Action Plan. Armed with knowledge, you can feel empowered to make smart, proactive choices to take control of your health and ensure you stay healthy for years to come.